UFC 118 – Betting Preview and Picks

The UFC is in Boston for their first Pay per view event in the city, UFC 118 – Edgar vs. Penn 2 is shaping up to be one of the best cards of the year. I know I said it last card but I was right and it’s not the main event that has people talking.  Sure, Frankie Edgar trying to prove his win over BJ Penn wasn’t a fluke is compelling but the co-main event featuring a Boxer vs. MMA storyline is why people are tuning in.

UFC Hall of Famer Randy Couture is defending the honor of the sport against current IBA boxing champion James “Lights Out” Toney.  There have been boxers that have stepped into an MMA cage but not since the one gloved wonder Art Jimmerson was tapped out by Royce Gracie has a boxer been in the UFC cage.  A lot of boxers have talked crap about the UFC but Toney is the first fighter of considerable stature to actually step into the cage.

Let’s have a look at the fights and we’ll give you our free UFC betting picks.

BJ Penn                                -350
Over Rounds 3½               -150
Under Rounds 3½            +120
Frank Edgar        +250
Penn vs Edgar Lightweight Championship 5

BJ Penn was sick leading up to the fight at UFC 112 and that’s why he had trouble dealing with Penn’s speed. Edgar executed the perfect game plan to win over the judges but if Penn is healthy, I don’t give him much chance to make it out of the third round against Penn. Penn will tap Edgar for the victory.

Randy Couture                  -650
James Toney                      +425
Couture vs Toney Light Heavyweight 3 rounds

This fight won’t make it out of the first round, it either ends with Randy Couture shooting and ground and pounding Toney until the ref calls the fight. Or it will end with James Toney landing a punch or two with the 4oz gloves and turning Couture’s lights out. I say the chances of either happening are about 50/50 and because the line is -650/+425 and not -115/-115, I’m taking the value of James Toney at +425. Either way James Toney’s post fight interview will be as much of a spectacle as the fight.

Kenny Florian                    -160
Gray Maynard                   +130
Florian vs Maynard Lightweight 3 rounds

Gray Maynard is undefeated and he’s the only man to beat the current lightweight champion Frankie Edgar. He’s an excellent wrestler and while this fight won’t be exciting to the casual fan, there is enough animosity between these two to make it interesting. Kenny Florian is getting better every fight and while he has a chance to beat Maynard, I think Maynard wrestles his way to victory here. Not pretty but it’s a win.

Nate Diaz                             -220
Marcus Davis                     +175
Diaz vs Davis Welterweight 3 rounds

Marcus Davis is 36 years old and we’ve said it here before, strikers don’t age gracefully.  Nate Diaz is fighting his second match at 170lbs and with the extra time in his natural division, he’ll put on a hell of a show. Trying to cut to 155lbs while being six feet tall is nuts, 170 is good. Diaz wins.

Demian Maia                     -210
Mario Miranda                  +165
Middleweight 3 rounds

Maia is fighting his fight match since the bizarre loss he suffered at the hands of Anderson Silva at UFC 112. He’s fighting another Brazilian Ju-Jitsu fighter but the difference is Miranda is a much more rounded fighter than Maia is. If he can impose his will standing, he can use some dirty boxing and control the fight, Miranda should do enough to win an upset victory here.