UFC 104 Lyoto Machida vs Mauricio Rua

 

UFC 104 Shogun vs. the Dragon

The UFC 104 man event features Lyoto Machida defending his light heavyweight title versus the former number 3 pound for pound Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Machida goes into this fight a huge favorite but you should not overlook Rua. Of all the possible LHW matchups, I think Rua is best suited to take the title from Machida.

Rua entered the UFC with great fanfare; with big wins over notable stars such as Rampage Jackson, Antônio Rogério Nogueira, Kevin Randleman and current StrikeForce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem the UFC should have been an easy stroll to the title. However, his first fight was against future UFC LHW champion and Ultimate Fighter 1 winner Forrest Griffin. Griffin wore out Rua with his great conditioning and never quit attitude, finally earned a submission with only 15 seconds left in the fight. Rua had injured his knee in the lead-up to the fight and reinjured it during the fight forcing him to get surgery. He returned with a lackluster win over Mark Coleman but it was huge knockout of Chuck Liddell in his next fight that earned him a title shot.

Lyoto Machida’s awkward karate stance has been untouchable so far, he is undefeated in 15 fights with wins over Tito Ortiz, BJ Penn Rich Franklin and of course, his brutal knock out of Rashad Evans that won him the title. Machida is changing people’s perception of Karate, which has been the butt of many MMA jokes but to be fair, Machida is well versed in karate, sumo, jiu-jitsu and Thai boxing.

Right now, Lyoto Machida looks unstoppable or a better way to describe him would be he looks unhittable. Rua is well rounded with both excellent ju-jitsu and Muay Thai skills and as he is 100% healthy for the first time in the UFC. If Shogun Rua stands a chance, he will have to get past Machida’s karate stand defense and force the fight in a controlled manner. Others fighters have tried to come at him to direct and uncontrolled only to be beaten or others like Rashad Evens were too tentative and suffered a beating because he was unsure how to attack Machida. While Machida is no slouch on the ground, Rua should take the fight to the ground even if it means taking guard against the champion, anything to keep him from having to think too much while standing.

Current UFC 104 Odds

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua  (+325)

Lyoto Machida   (-450)

Sportsbook Veteran Free UFC Betting Pick

Machida is likely to win this one but I loathe laying -450 on any bet. Therefore, I am going to put a small wager on Mauricio Rua.