The Sportsbook Bashing Continues

By Ethan Cade Monday, October 26th, 2009 | No Comments

Tonight the favored Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Redskins by 10 points covering the 7.5 pointspread. With another favorite winning, this makes week 7 in the NFL one of the worst weeks for the sportsbooks in several years.

As we’ve mentioned before the betting public picks the favorite much more often than the underdog.  The sportsbooks know this so they will push the line a little further than the actual handicap, for example, if the Chargers and Broncos are playing the handicappers will look at all the data available and determine the number of points that will likely decide the game.  Let’s say the number is -4 for the Broncos, meaning the Broncos based on all of the stats should win the game by 4 points. Once the points are established, the bookmakers will adjust this spread based on the public’s perception of the game. As the Broncos are undefeated, the public would place their bets on Broncos -4 and have a very good chance of winning, in an attempt to prevent all the wagers being placed on the Broncos the bookmakers will post an opening line that has been adjusted from the original handicap. As one of the scoring multipliers 3, 4, 7, 10, 14, 17, 20, 21 is the difference in most games the logical opener would be Broncos -7. The bettors would still bet on the Broncos because it’s only one score difference but it gives the bookmakers an extra 3-point cushion on the original handicapped number.

Well that’s been the theory and it’s worked well but with the disparity between the good and the bad teams this year books are taking a bigger hit on games involving any of the poor teams such as the Rams, Chiefs, Browns and Titans.  Monday night’s game was just another big hit on the sportsbooks.  I generally like to bet as many underdogs as I bet favorites due to the extra cushion the bookmakers provide but if you want to make money, load up on the poor teams not covering the spread.

Let’s have a look at the results so far this season the number that jumps out at me is 70% of favorites have covered the spread.  Good for NFL Bettors, bad for NFL Bookmakers

Straight Up Trends (Won Loss Tie)

Category Record Percent
Away Teams 47-56-0 45.63%
Home Teams 56-47-0 54.37%
Favorites 72-31-0 69.90%
Dogs 31-72-0 30.10%
Away Favorites 26-10-0 72.22%
Away Dogs 21-46-0 31.34%
Home Favorites 46-21-0 68.66%
Home Dogs 10-26-0 27.78%

Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

Category Record Percent
Away Teams 53-48-2 52.48%
Home Teams 48-53-2 47.52%
Favorites 56-45-2 55.45%
Dogs 45-56-2 44.55%
Away Favorites 22-14-0 61.11%
Away Dogs 31-34-2 47.69%
Home Favorites 34-31-2 52.31%
Home Dogs 14-22-0 38.89%

Over vs. Under Trends

Category Overs Percent Unders Percent
Overtime Games 3 50.00% 3 50.00%
Non-Overtime Games 50 52.63% 45 47.37%
All Games 53 52.48% 48 47.52%