Statistical Super Bowl XLV Prediction

Most of this data is from a very interesting piece on NFL.com but it’s definitely an interesting piece for online gambling NFL bettors to consider.

The data breaks down the historical records of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs in various situations, and then combines them with situational data from this season to give us their Super Bowl Prediction by awarding each team a score for their quarter.

First quarter
Super Bowl winning percentage: The Packers and Steelers are the two winningest teams in playoff history.
Packers – 44 postseason games, 28-16 record (63.6 percent),
Steelers -52 postseason games, 33-19 record (63.5 percent)
Advantage: Packers

Offensive points: The team with the better regular season offensive numbers has won the Super Bowl 23 out of 44 times.
Packers ranked 10th with 388 points
Steelers ranked12th with 375 points
Advantage: Packers

Third-down conversions: It’s a statistic that is often the difference in a tight game.
Steelers converted 43.1 percent of their 3rd down chances.
Packers converted (41.5) percent of their 3rd down chances.
Advantage: Steelers

END OF FIRST QUARTER: Packers 2, Steelers 1

Second quarter
Time of possession: In the regular season, the Steelers averaged a possession time of 32:24, the Packers (32:01). In the postseason, Green Bay (34:47) holding a small edge over Pittsburgh (34:34).
Advantage: Packers (playoffs count more than regular season)

Regular-season sacks: Pressure on the quarterback can change the dynamic for even the most prolific offense. In the regular season, the Steelers and Packers were the two best teams at getting to the quarterback. The Steelers totaled 48 sacks, while the Packers recorded 47. Advantage: Steelers

Postseason sacks: The Packers have a plus-5 sack ratio in their three games, while the Steelers are minus-1 in their two games.
Advantage: Packers

HALFTIME: Packers 4, Steelers 2

Third quarter
Points allowed: The Super Bowl team giving up the fewest points in the regular season has won 28 out of 44 matchups.
Green Bay allowed 240 total points
Pittsburgh allowed 232.
Advantage: Steelers

Regular-season turnover differential: Teams with a positive turnover differential have gone 32-3 all-time in the Super Bowl (there were nine times the teams had the same number of turnovers).
Steelers had a plus-17 turnover ratio.
Packers had a plus-10 differential.
Advantage: Steelers

Postseason turnover differential:
Packers have a plus-3 turnover differential.
Steelers are even in turnover differential in the playoffs.
Advantage: Packers

END OF THIRD QUARTER: Packers 5, Steelers 4

Fourth quarter
Age of quarterback: With age comes experience, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into Super Bowl success for quarterbacks. The younger of the two Super Bowl signal-callers has actually come out on top just as many times as the elders have. For what it’s worth, Ben Roethlisberger is 28 years old, while Aaron Rodgers is 27. In fact, Roethlisberger and Rodgers were born within 10 months of each other, making this the seventh time in the 44-year history of the Super Bowl that has been the case, with a 3-3 split in those instances. Advantage: Tie

Age of coach: Mike Tomlin became the youngest coach to win the Super Bowl when the Steelers defeated the Cardinals following the 2009 season, bucking the notion that experience translates into Super Bowl success. In fact, the younger of the two Super Bowl coaches has won the big game 25 out of 44 times. Packers coach Mike McCarthy is 47 years old, while Tomlin is 38. Advantage: Steelers

END OF REGULATION: Packers 5, Steelers 5

Overtime
Sunday will mark just the third time in Super Bowl history that a team has reached the Super Bowl after posting a 10-6 regular-season record, and both times those teams have emerged victorious. The 10-6 49ers defeated the Bengals, 20-16, in Super Bowl XXIII. The 10-6 Giants upset the undefeated Patriots, 17-14, in Super Bowl XLII.

This year, the 10-6 Packers face the 12-4 Steelers. Advantage: Packers

FINAL: Packers 6, Steelers 5

It’s hard to say if this really is a good method to pick a Super Bowl winner but I’ve definitely seen worse ways.

We’ll be back tomorrow with our Super Bowl XLV Predictions