NBA Key Numbers

NBA Key Numbers
With the NBA season underway, I thought it would be a good time to explain the key numbers NBA bettors should be looking at before they make their NBA bets.

For those of you that don’t know in sports betting a key number is the number of points that are likely to decide a game. The key numbers for NBA bettors aren’t as widely known as the NFL key numbers in football but they are just as important. In the NFL, because teams generally score 3 or 7 points at a time more often than not the differential between the two teams are 3, 7 or a combination such as 6 or 10.

In the past bookmakers have often ignored the importance of NBA key numbers but with more games falling close to these particular numbers people have taken notice. The most important number is 2 as the majority of points in the NBA are scored on a 2-point shot. If you see a spread of 2 points chances are the game will be a close one and 1 2 or 3 points decide most close games. When a bookmaker has a game with a spread of 2 points, the line moves will be less frequent for fear of being middled or sided on a game. Being middled is when a bookmaker, because of aggressive line moves takes too much money on both sides of the line. For example, if the line opens at 1.5 and they take a ton of money on the favorite forcing the book to move the line to 2. Then the book eventually moves to 2.5 and when the line is at 2.5, they take a ton of money on the underdog it leaves them in a precarious position if the favorite wins by 2 points. As the bettors would win money bet on the favorite at 1.5, push all wagers placed on 2 and lose all dog bets at 2.5.

The next NBA Key number is 7 because when a team is down 7 points it becomes a three-possession game, meaning the losing team will need 3 trips up the floor to tie or take the lead. At that point, teams will stop fouling and just play. Foul shots are always figured into the creation of an NBA line, so if you have a bet in at 6.5, be prepared to sweat it out. If you have a 2-point game with a minute left, the losing team will continue to send their opponents to the line and if they can’t answer the free throws with 3 pointers, the spread continues to grow.

So if you are betting an NBA game and you see a line of 2 or 7, be prepared to curse, yell, and sweat it out, right down to the final buzzer. Good luck with your bets.