Line Shopping

I have said it before and I will say to anyone who will listen, if you want to make money sports betting you absolutely need to have an account with multiple online sportsbooks and shop for lines. Let me explain.

One of the keys to long-term success betting on sports is betting the best number. The best number means taking the favorite when the line is the lowest or betting the underdog when the line is highest. A general rule of thumb is to bet favorites as soon as the line comes out and bet on the underdog as close to game time as possible. The reason for this is the sportsbook will take more action on the favorite 9 times out of 10, so they are forced to move the point spread higher to try to balance the action. Here is an example from week 10 of the NFL from just one online sportsbook.

 

 

Minnesota 27 – Detroit 10
Line Movement
8-Nov 05:04:29pm – Minnesota 15 OPENER
8-Nov 05:07:23pm – Minnesota 15½
9-Nov 07:57:41am – Minnesota 16
9-Nov 11:09:41am – Minnesota 16½
15-Nov 06:00:29am – Minnesota 17
15-Nov 06:01:34am – Minnesota 16½
15-Nov 08:34:39am – Minnesota 17 CLOSING

As you can see if you bet the Vikings early in the week, you were a sure winner but if you bet the closing line of 17, you would have pushed. Conversely, if you bet the lines any other time except for the closing line you would have lost. This is a perfect example of why you bet favorites early and underdogs late.

Why I say you should have multiple books is these line movements you see from just one sportsbook are occurring at different sportsbooks at different times. Therefore, if you miss the number at your favorite book you still have multiple chances to get the best number for your bet.

I know some of you are saying I cannot afford to put money into all these different books. But I ask you, how can you afford not to?