Gamblers Strength of Schedule

Calculating NFL Schedule Strength

Chad Millman of ESPN has let the people in on a little secret that gamblers have known about for years. The secret is that the strength of schedule used by the mainstream media and the NFL is bullshit.

The old schedule strength is calculate by adding up the previous year’s wins of each teams opponents, that would be effective if this year’s team was identical with last year’s team. If that was the case, there would be no point in playing the season.

How gamblers have been calculating an NFL team’s strength of schedule is by taking the predicted win totals from an online sportsbook and then add the teams opponents together. The reasoning behind this method is that the bookmakers will take the time to handicap player changes, new draft picks, coaching changes and all the rest of the goings on in the league that will affect a team’s performance.

Based on the formula laid out by Millman here are the top to bottom strength of schedules based on the mainstream media Calculations and the gamblers strength of schedule.

As you can see by the list, the Philadelphia Eagles have the toughest schedule while the San Francisco 49ers have the easiest. This bodes well for the media darling and not so sleeper pick the 49ers.

Gamblers SoS		MSM SoS
Team	SOS	Team	SOS
1. Philadelphia Eagles	0.531	Houston Texans	0.547
2. Houston Texans	0.526	Tennessee Titans	0.547
3. Detroit Lions	0.525	Dallas Cowboys	0.543
4. Cincinnati Bengals	0.522	Cincinnati Bengals	0.539
5. Tennessee Titans	0.52	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.535
6. Dallas Cowboys	0.517	New England Patriots	0.531
7. Buffalo Bills	0.516	New York Giants	0.527
8. Cleveland Browns	0.512	Washington Redskins	0.523
9. New York Giants	0.512	Philadelphia Eagles	0.52
10. Chicago Bears	0.511	Cleveland Browns	0.516
11. Minnesota Vikings	0.511	Indianapolis Colts	0.516
12. New England Patriots	0.511	Baltimore Ravens	0.508
13. Washington Redskins	0.509	Detroit Lions	0.508
14. Jacksonville Jaguars	0.507	Chicago Bears	0.504
15. Green Bay Packers	0.505	Minnesota Vikings	0.504
16. Indianapolis Colts	0.504	Buffalo Bills	0.5
17. Denver Broncos	0.501	Miami Dolphins	0.5
18. Carolina Panthers	0.498	New York Jets	0.5
19. Oakland Raiders	0.498	Oakland Raiders	0.5
20. Miami Dolphins	0.495	Atlanta Falcons	0.496
21. Pittsburgh Steelers	0.493	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.492
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.491	Green Bay Packers	0.488
23. New York Jets	0.491	Kansas City Chiefs	0.488
24. Baltimore Ravens	0.486	Denver Broncos	0.484
25. Atlanta Falcons	0.485	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.48
26. Arizona Cardinals	0.48	Carolina Panthers	0.477
27. New Orleans Saints	0.481	New Orleans Saints	0.469
28. St. Louis Rams	0.478	San Francisco 49ers	0.457
29. Seattle Seahawks	0.476	San Diego Chargers	0.453
30. Kansas City Chiefs	0.471	Seattle Seahawks	0.453
31. San Diego Chargers	0.468	St. Louis Rams	0.449
31. San Francisco 49ers	0.468	Arizona Cardinals	0.445