Betting Totals

We’ve talked about betting point spreads and teams to win outright but every week gamblers win and lose millions of dollars betting on the game totals.

The game totals are easy to understand, you are betting whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under the bookmakers posted prediction.  Sounds simple enough but there are a few factors you need to look at before you start placing your bets.

How the totals are set – the bookmakers take the average total points scored and given up by both teams and then divide by two. Then the line is tweaked based on injuries, weather, location, matchups, and game styles and of course public perception.

Let’s look at a couple of factors that will affect your decision when betting on NFL totals.

Injuries – Injuries are something bettors and even some bookmakers often overvalue when predicting a game total. If a starting quarterback goes down with an injury, the automatic reaction will be that the team using a replacement will be ineffective moving the offense. But NFL backups want to be NFL starters and the professionals will spend their time on the bench and on the practice field preparing for the moment when they can take over the offense. We saw it when Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe and when Matt Cassel replaced Tom Brady. The backups know the offense and stand a pretty good chance of moving the ball. If you see the line drop, it may be a good over opportunity for you, especially if the football team is known for its system.

High/Low Totals – I’ve heard it said that a gambler can make have a pretty good winning percentage by finding the highest total on the board and betting over it and finding the lowest total and betting under it. There is a reason these totals have been set so high or so low. The teams involved are known for their extreme offenses or their impressive defenses. I don’t have any stats to back this up but it’s a good theory and if you try it let me know how it works.

Weather – The weather deserves its own post so look for a follow up post on how weather conditions affect your decision when betting NFL Totals.